Trump's Deal with Netanyahu

The Unspoken Alliance: Trump's Deal with Netanyahu

In 2017, the Trump administration's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocate the US embassy sparked widespread international outrage. But beneath the surface, this move was more than just a provocative gesture – it marked a significant shift in US foreign policy, one that would have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global politics. The key takeaway is this: the Trump administration's strengthening of ties with Israel under Netanyahu has created a new axis of power in the Middle East, one that challenges traditional European influence and opens the door for non-traditional players like China and Russia.

The Jerusalem Gambit

The decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem was a masterstroke of realpolitik. By acknowledging Israel's sovereignty over the city, the Trump administration sent a clear signal to the international community that the US was no longer bound by the traditional constraints of Middle East diplomacy. This move was not just about Jerusalem – it was about redefining the terms of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. By abandoning the long-standing US position that Jerusalem's status would be determined in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, the Trump administration effectively took the issue off the table.

This was not just a rhetorical flourish – it had real-world consequences. The embassy move was a major blow to Palestinian morale, and it emboldened Israel's hard-right settlers to push for further expansion in the West Bank. But it also sent a powerful signal to other regional players that the US was willing to challenge the status quo and redraw the map of the Middle East.

The Shared Threat of Iranian Influence

One of the driving forces behind the Trump-Netanyahu alliance is a shared concern over Iranian influence in the region. Iran's growing military presence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East, and both the US and Israel see it as a major threat to regional stability. But while the US has focused on containing Iran through economic sanctions and military pressure, Israel has taken a more proactive approach – working with its Arab allies to build a coalition against Iranian expansion.

This shared concern has created a powerful bond between the US and Israel, one that has been forged in the fires of common adversity. And it's not just about Iran – it's about the broader regional dynamic. The US and Israel see themselves as countervailing forces against the encroaching influence of China and Russia, which have been building their own networks of influence in the region.

The Erosion of Traditional Alliances

But while the Trump-Netanyahu alliance may be a powerful force in the short term, it also poses significant risks in the long term. By abandoning traditional US-European alliances and embracing an "America First" strategy, the Trump administration has created a power vacuum in the Middle East that other global powers are eager to fill.

China, in particular, has been quietly building its influence in the region, investing heavily in infrastructure projects and building strategic partnerships with key players like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And Russia, which has long been a key player in the Middle East, has been quietly rebuilding its influence in the region – working with its Syrian allies to secure key strategic assets like the Port of Tartus.

The Real Problem: The US's Energy Security Conundrum

One of the most underappreciated aspects of the Trump-Netanyahu alliance is its potential impact on the global energy market. Israel, which has recently discovered significant natural gas reserves off its coast, has become a major player in the global energy market – and the US has been eager to tap into this resource.

The potential for increased cooperation on natural gas exports has significant implications for European energy security and the balance of power in the region. If the US and Israel can establish a robust network of natural gas exports, it could create a powerful counterweight to Russian influence in the region – and it could also help to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy imports.

What Most People Get Wrong

Most observers see the Trump-Netanyahu alliance as a purely ideological affair – a product of shared conservative values and a commitment to a hawkish approach to Middle East diplomacy. But this misses the point entirely. The reality is that the Trump-Netanyahu alliance is a pragmatic arrangement, driven by a shared commitment to regional stability and a recognition of the encroaching influence of non-traditional powers.

This alliance is not about ideology – it's about interests. And it's not just about the US and Israel – it's about the broader regional dynamic. The Trump-Netanyahu alliance has created a new axis of power in the Middle East, one that challenges traditional European influence and opens the door for non-traditional players like China and Russia.

The Way Forward

So what does this mean for the future of the Middle East? The answer is clear: the Trump-Netanyahu alliance has created a new paradigm in regional politics, one that requires a fundamentally new approach to US foreign policy. The US needs to adapt to this new reality, working with its allies to build a robust network of strategic partnerships that can counterbalance the influence of non-traditional powers.

This means investing in key regional players like Jordan and Egypt, building robust partnerships with key Arab allies, and leveraging the growing influence of Israel to build a coalition against Iranian expansion. It also means taking a more nuanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, one that acknowledges the complexities of the issue and seeks to build a durable peace that can withstand the pressures of regional competition.

In the end, the Trump-Netanyahu alliance may be a temporary arrangement – but its impact on the global energy market and the balance of power in the region will be felt for decades to come. The US needs to get this right, working with its allies to build a robust network of strategic partnerships that can secure regional stability and promote American interests.